Model Step 2 - Model Card

Background

A model card provides brief, transparent, responsible reporting for a trained machine learning model. Expand the code chunk below to inspect the code that loads the model, training data, and evaluation data.

library(tidyverse)
## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr     1.1.4     ✔ readr     2.1.5
## ✔ forcats   1.0.0     ✔ stringr   1.5.1
## ✔ ggplot2   3.5.1     ✔ tibble    3.2.1
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.3     ✔ tidyr     1.3.1
## ✔ purrr     1.0.2     
## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag()    masks stats::lag()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors
library(vetiver)
library(pins)
library(yardstick)
## 
## Attaching package: 'yardstick'
## 
## The following object is masked from 'package:readr':
## 
##     spec
library(glue)
library(kableExtra)
## 
## Attaching package: 'kableExtra'
## 
## The following object is masked from 'package:dplyr':
## 
##     group_rows


board <- pins::board_connect()
## Connecting to Posit Connect 2025.12.1 at <https://pub.current.posit.team>
v <- vetiver_pin_read(board, params$name, version = params$version)
v_meta <- pin_meta(board, params$name)

con <- DBI::dbConnect(
  odbc::odbc(),
  Driver      = "postgresql",
  Server      = Sys.getenv("DB_SERVER"),
  Port        = "5432",
  Database    = "soleng",
  UID         = Sys.getenv("DB_USER"),
  PWD         = Sys.getenv("DB_PASSWORD"),
  BoolsAsChar = "",
  timeout     = 10
)
bike_model_data <- tbl(con, DBI::Id(schema="content", name="bike_model_data"))


train_start_date <- lubridate::as_date(v$metadata$user$train_dates[1])
train_end_date <- lubridate::as_date(v$metadata$user$train_dates[2])
test_start_date <- lubridate::as_date(v$metadata$user$test_dates[1])
test_end_date <- lubridate::as_date(v$metadata$user$test_dates[2])

data <- bike_model_data %>%
  filter(date >= train_start_date) %>%
  collect() %>%
  mutate(
    data_type = case_when(
      date <= train_end_date ~ "train",
      date <= test_end_date ~ "test",
      TRUE ~ "latest"
    )
  )

train_data <- data %>%
  filter(data_type == "train")

test_data <- data %>%
  filter(data_type == "test")

Model details

• Developed by Sam Edwardes (Posit - Solutions Engineer)
• A ranger regression modeling workflow using features
• This model was developed to predict how many capital bikeshare bikes will be available for a given station based on the time of day, and day of the week.
• The data used to train the model was obtained from the capital bikeshare API.
• Version 10547 of this model was published at 2026-01-31 16:59:47
• If you have questions about this model, please create an issue on our GitHub repo: https://github.com/sol-eng/bike_predict/issues.

Intended use

• The primary intended use of this model is to demonstrate an end-to-end data science workflow using Posit Connect.

Metrics

• The metrics used to evaluate this model are:
  • Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE),
  • R Squared (RSQ), and
  • Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
• We chose these metrics because because they are the most common metrics for assessing the performance of regression models, and that they are well understood by the data science community.

Training data & evaluation data

Overview

The training data set for this model was was obtained from the capital bikeshare API. The Model is retrained on a daily basis using refreshed data.

• Training date range: 2023-12-10 to 2024-01-05.
• Evaluation date range: 2024-01-06 to 2026-01-30.

The data set for this model has the “prototype” or signature:

glimpse(v$prototype)

Rows: 1
Columns: 7
$ id    <chr> "0099b016-32c9-4536-ac4c-dcc1a117bd95"
$ hour  <dbl> 0
$ date  <date> 2023-12-10
$ month <dbl> 12
$ dow   <chr> "Sunday"
$ lat   <dbl> 38.87035
$ lon   <dbl> -76.94528

Training data

Below is a summary of the training data:

train_data %>%
  select(-n_bikes) %>%
  skimr::skim()

Data summary

Name	Piped data
Number of rows	186714
Number of columns	8
_______________________
Column type frequency:
character	3
Date	1
numeric	4
________________________
Group variables	None

Variable type: character

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	min	max	empty	n_unique	whitespace
id	0	1	19	36	0	729	0
dow	0	1	6	9	0	7	0
data_type	0	1	5	5	0	1	0

Variable type: Date

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	min	max	median	n_unique
date	0	1	2023-12-10	2024-01-05	2023-12-21	27

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	mean	sd	p0	p25	p50	p75	p100	hist
hour	0	1	11.13	6.68	0.00	6.00	10.00	16.00	22.00	▇▅▇▆▇
month	0	1	11.40	2.50	1.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	▁▁▁▁▇
lat	0	1	38.91	0.06	38.78	38.88	38.90	38.93	39.13	▂▇▃▁▁
lon	0	1	-77.06	0.09	-77.37	-77.09	-77.04	-77.01	-76.83	▁▁▆▇▁

Evaluation data

Below is a summary of the evaluation data:

test_data %>%
  select(-n_bikes) %>%
  skimr::skim()

Data summary

Name	Piped data
Number of rows	2286125
Number of columns	8
_______________________
Column type frequency:
character	3
Date	1
numeric	4
________________________
Group variables	None

Variable type: character

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	min	max	empty	n_unique	whitespace
id	0	1	19	36	0	819	0
dow	0	1	6	9	0	7	0
data_type	0	1	4	4	0	1	0

Variable type: Date

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	min	max	median	n_unique
date	0	1	2024-01-06	2026-01-30	2024-06-01	688

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	mean	sd	p0	p25	p50	p75	p100	hist
hour	0	1	11.23	7.74	0.00	4.00	10.00	18.00	23.00	▇▅▃▆▆
month	0	1	5.13	2.90	1.00	3.00	5.00	7.00	12.00	▇▅▅▃▂
lat	0	1	38.91	0.06	38.77	38.88	38.90	38.93	39.13	▂▇▅▁▁
lon	0	1	-77.07	0.09	-77.42	-77.09	-77.04	-77.01	-76.83	▁▁▃▇▁

Quantitative analyses

Overall model performance

Overall model performance against the model evaluation data.

# Explicitly define packages used for model metrics by vetiver so that Connect 
# is able to redeploy.
library(slider)

latest_metrics %>%
  kable() %>%
  kable_material()

.index	.n	.metric	.estimator	.estimate
2024-01-06	3645	rmse	standard	3.9559098
2024-01-06	3645	rsq	standard	0.4422926
2024-01-06	3645	mae	standard	3.1160184
2024-01-07	4374	rmse	standard	4.3590087
2024-01-07	4374	rsq	standard	0.2833254
2024-01-07	4374	mae	standard	3.3520581
2024-01-08	5832	rmse	standard	4.2097115
2024-01-08	5832	rsq	standard	0.3690064
2024-01-08	5832	mae	standard	3.2614506
2024-01-09	9479	rmse	standard	3.9760650
2024-01-09	9479	rsq	standard	0.3860656
2024-01-09	9479	mae	standard	3.0737421
2024-01-10	8762	rmse	standard	4.1407649
2024-01-10	8762	rsq	standard	0.4099701
2024-01-10	8762	mae	standard	3.2340779
2024-01-11	8775	rmse	standard	4.1747277
2024-01-11	8775	rsq	standard	0.4368591
2024-01-11	8775	mae	standard	3.2935043
2024-01-12	8784	rmse	standard	4.1502746
2024-01-12	8784	rsq	standard	0.4167881
2024-01-12	8784	mae	standard	3.2277137
2024-01-13	9516	rmse	standard	4.2712360
2024-01-13	9516	rsq	standard	0.4427570
2024-01-13	9516	mae	standard	3.3520246
2024-01-14	9516	rmse	standard	4.2965324
2024-01-14	9516	rsq	standard	0.4516791
2024-01-14	9516	mae	standard	3.3768464
2024-01-15	9516	rmse	standard	4.3932936
2024-01-15	9516	rsq	standard	0.3921384
2024-01-15	9516	mae	standard	3.4528389
2024-01-16	9516	rmse	standard	4.3537097
2024-01-16	9516	rsq	standard	0.3814695
2024-01-16	9516	mae	standard	3.3858052
2024-01-17	8784	rmse	standard	4.3880675
2024-01-17	8784	rsq	standard	0.4087828
2024-01-17	8784	mae	standard	3.4023796
2024-01-18	8784	rmse	standard	4.3128590
2024-01-18	8784	rsq	standard	0.4185995
2024-01-18	8784	mae	standard	3.3796126
2024-01-19	9516	rmse	standard	4.3281417
2024-01-19	9516	rsq	standard	0.3620283
2024-01-19	9516	mae	standard	3.3567940
2024-01-20	9516	rmse	standard	4.3045096
2024-01-20	9516	rsq	standard	0.3494443
2024-01-20	9516	mae	standard	3.3491962
2024-01-21	8784	rmse	standard	4.4034317
2024-01-21	8784	rsq	standard	0.2600303
2024-01-21	8784	mae	standard	3.4493245
2024-01-22	9516	rmse	standard	4.2683906
2024-01-22	9516	rsq	standard	0.2903364
2024-01-22	9516	mae	standard	3.3811766
2024-01-23	9516	rmse	standard	4.3207872
2024-01-23	9516	rsq	standard	0.3280502
2024-01-23	9516	mae	standard	3.3798649
2024-01-24	8784	rmse	standard	4.3592824
2024-01-24	8784	rsq	standard	0.3770487
2024-01-24	8784	mae	standard	3.4448572
2024-01-25	9516	rmse	standard	4.2881287
2024-01-25	9516	rsq	standard	0.3565738
2024-01-25	9516	mae	standard	3.4001905
2024-01-26	8784	rmse	standard	4.2578652
2024-01-26	8784	rsq	standard	0.3520268
2024-01-26	8784	mae	standard	3.3360588
2024-01-27	8784	rmse	standard	4.3798651
2024-01-27	8784	rsq	standard	0.3628422
2024-01-27	8784	mae	standard	3.4356642
2024-01-28	9516	rmse	standard	4.3732024
2024-01-28	9516	rsq	standard	0.4079124
2024-01-28	9516	mae	standard	3.4675015
2024-01-29	8052	rmse	standard	4.5369344
2024-01-29	8052	rsq	standard	0.4501673
2024-01-29	8052	mae	standard	3.6337326
2024-01-30	8784	rmse	standard	4.4497696
2024-01-30	8784	rsq	standard	0.5045026
2024-01-30	8784	mae	standard	3.5232698
2024-01-31	8784	rmse	standard	4.5035206
2024-01-31	8784	rsq	standard	0.5059612
2024-01-31	8784	mae	standard	3.5422876
2024-02-01	9515	rmse	standard	4.4849566
2024-02-01	9515	rsq	standard	0.5181925
2024-02-01	9515	mae	standard	3.5239936
2024-02-02	8772	rmse	standard	4.3229432
2024-02-02	8772	rsq	standard	0.4818402
2024-02-02	8772	mae	standard	3.4235355
2024-02-03	8772	rmse	standard	4.5281839
2024-02-03	8772	rsq	standard	0.5004645
2024-02-03	8772	mae	standard	3.5775231
2024-02-04	9503	rmse	standard	4.5146619
2024-02-04	9503	rsq	standard	0.5166060
2024-02-04	9503	mae	standard	3.5629152
2024-02-05	1462	rmse	standard	4.6181273
2024-02-05	1462	rsq	standard	0.4415033
2024-02-05	1462	mae	standard	3.6146588
2024-02-06	2924	rmse	standard	4.4051208
2024-02-06	2924	rsq	standard	0.5716092
2024-02-06	2924	mae	standard	3.5273646
2024-02-07	8772	rmse	standard	4.4247907
2024-02-07	8772	rsq	standard	0.4856346
2024-02-07	8772	mae	standard	3.5112154
2024-02-08	9503	rmse	standard	4.5103663
2024-02-08	9503	rsq	standard	0.4327536
2024-02-08	9503	mae	standard	3.5753438
2024-02-09	8772	rmse	standard	4.1264861
2024-02-09	8772	rsq	standard	0.4483416
2024-02-09	8772	mae	standard	3.2830776
2024-02-10	9503	rmse	standard	4.3091987
2024-02-10	9503	rsq	standard	0.4218132
2024-02-10	9503	mae	standard	3.4461699
2024-02-11	8041	rmse	standard	4.3259560
2024-02-11	8041	rsq	standard	0.4316702
2024-02-11	8041	mae	standard	3.5187930
2024-02-12	9503	rmse	standard	4.4849207
2024-02-12	9503	rsq	standard	0.4322053
2024-02-12	9503	mae	standard	3.6439606
2024-02-13	8772	rmse	standard	4.4281071
2024-02-13	8772	rsq	standard	0.4058283
2024-02-13	8772	mae	standard	3.4820612
2024-02-14	9503	rmse	standard	4.5800386
2024-02-14	9503	rsq	standard	0.3537569
2024-02-14	9503	mae	standard	3.6558301
2024-02-15	9503	rmse	standard	4.6154802
2024-02-15	9503	rsq	standard	0.3309587
2024-02-15	9503	mae	standard	3.6435067
2024-02-16	9507	rmse	standard	4.4952210
2024-02-16	9507	rsq	standard	0.3172954
2024-02-16	9507	mae	standard	3.5436669
2024-02-17	9516	rmse	standard	4.6422838
2024-02-17	9516	rsq	standard	0.3176156
2024-02-17	9516	mae	standard	3.7115435
2024-02-18	8784	rmse	standard	4.5607658
2024-02-18	8784	rsq	standard	0.3368163
2024-02-18	8784	mae	standard	3.6496611
2024-02-19	9516	rmse	standard	4.5038822
2024-02-19	9516	rsq	standard	0.3389111
2024-02-19	9516	mae	standard	3.5486474
2024-02-20	9516	rmse	standard	4.5478265
2024-02-20	9516	rsq	standard	0.3683072
2024-02-20	9516	mae	standard	3.5904145
2024-02-21	9516	rmse	standard	4.5499691
2024-02-21	9516	rsq	standard	0.3747405
2024-02-21	9516	mae	standard	3.6279420
2024-02-22	8052	rmse	standard	4.6563039
2024-02-22	8052	rsq	standard	0.3645717
2024-02-22	8052	mae	standard	3.6990936
2024-02-23	8064	rmse	standard	4.6254440
2024-02-23	8064	rsq	standard	0.3169474
2024-02-23	8064	mae	standard	3.6524997
2024-02-24	9555	rmse	standard	4.6592956
2024-02-24	9555	rsq	standard	0.2776636
2024-02-24	9555	mae	standard	3.7318758
2024-02-25	9555	rmse	standard	4.4866059
2024-02-25	9555	rsq	standard	0.3113127
2024-02-25	9555	mae	standard	3.5933298
2024-02-26	8820	rmse	standard	4.6234178
2024-02-26	8820	rsq	standard	0.3478845
2024-02-26	8820	mae	standard	3.6760107
2024-02-27	8085	rmse	standard	4.6810865
2024-02-27	8085	rsq	standard	0.3873837
2024-02-27	8085	mae	standard	3.7624854
2024-02-28	9555	rmse	standard	4.4364022
2024-02-28	9555	rsq	standard	0.4100979
2024-02-28	9555	mae	standard	3.5500100
2024-02-29	7350	rmse	standard	4.7035635
2024-02-29	7350	rsq	standard	0.3477420
2024-02-29	7350	mae	standard	3.7285899
2024-03-01	735	rmse	standard	4.5079401
2024-03-01	735	rsq	standard	0.4264111
2024-03-01	735	mae	standard	3.6133330
2024-03-02	2205	rmse	standard	4.4993603
2024-03-02	2205	rsq	standard	0.3565992
2024-03-02	2205	mae	standard	3.5969070
2024-03-04	735	rmse	standard	4.6336808
2024-03-04	735	rsq	standard	0.3535081
2024-03-04	735	mae	standard	3.7664934
2024-03-05	8085	rmse	standard	4.6842827
2024-03-05	8085	rsq	standard	0.3149707
2024-03-05	8085	mae	standard	3.7255981
2024-03-06	9555	rmse	standard	4.8825636
2024-03-06	9555	rsq	standard	0.2982853
2024-03-06	9555	mae	standard	3.9391311
2024-03-07	9555	rmse	standard	4.7319232
2024-03-07	9555	rsq	standard	0.3218103
2024-03-07	9555	mae	standard	3.8223141
2024-03-08	9555	rmse	standard	4.7051163
2024-03-08	9555	rsq	standard	0.2839293
2024-03-08	9555	mae	standard	3.7583563
2024-03-09	9555	rmse	standard	4.8061839
2024-03-09	9555	rsq	standard	0.2801825
2024-03-09	9555	mae	standard	3.9018452
2024-03-10	9555	rmse	standard	4.8153236
2024-03-10	9555	rsq	standard	0.2741055
2024-03-10	9555	mae	standard	3.8989053
2024-03-11	8820	rmse	standard	4.6705929
2024-03-11	8820	rsq	standard	0.2731198
2024-03-11	8820	mae	standard	3.7644381
2024-03-12	8823	rmse	standard	4.8882897
2024-03-12	8823	rsq	standard	0.2407307
2024-03-12	8823	mae	standard	3.9389798
2024-03-13	8096	rmse	standard	4.8407954
2024-03-13	8096	rsq	standard	0.2633317
2024-03-13	8096	mae	standard	3.8656823
2024-03-14	8832	rmse	standard	4.9375388
2024-03-14	8832	rsq	standard	0.2657579
2024-03-14	8832	mae	standard	3.9243135
2024-03-15	9568	rmse	standard	5.0097307
2024-03-15	9568	rsq	standard	0.2441672
2024-03-15	9568	mae	standard	3.9849322
2024-03-16	8832	rmse	standard	4.8307496
2024-03-16	8832	rsq	standard	0.3035137
2024-03-16	8832	mae	standard	3.9045776
2024-03-17	8832	rmse	standard	4.7571409
2024-03-17	8832	rsq	standard	0.3387628
2024-03-17	8832	mae	standard	3.8426513
2024-03-18	8832	rmse	standard	4.8051743
2024-03-18	8832	rsq	standard	0.3704803
2024-03-18	8832	mae	standard	3.8558247
2024-03-19	8832	rmse	standard	4.7615127
2024-03-19	8832	rsq	standard	0.4257309
2024-03-19	8832	mae	standard	3.8337916
2024-03-20	8836	rmse	standard	4.7717528
2024-03-20	8836	rsq	standard	0.3788167
2024-03-20	8836	mae	standard	3.8464538
2024-03-21	8848	rmse	standard	4.7432580
2024-03-21	8848	rsq	standard	0.3564345
2024-03-21	8848	mae	standard	3.7692437
2024-03-22	8856	rmse	standard	4.8193184
2024-03-22	8856	rsq	standard	0.3310060
2024-03-22	8856	mae	standard	3.8193621
2024-03-23	8856	rmse	standard	4.6475800
2024-03-23	8856	rsq	standard	0.3021630
2024-03-23	8856	mae	standard	3.6840869
2024-03-24	8856	rmse	standard	4.7977008
2024-03-24	8856	rsq	standard	0.2100078
2024-03-24	8856	mae	standard	3.8432277
2024-03-25	8856	rmse	standard	4.7722320
2024-03-25	8856	rsq	standard	0.2201375
2024-03-25	8856	mae	standard	3.8199783
2024-03-26	8121	rmse	standard	4.8836720
2024-03-26	8121	rsq	standard	0.2358793
2024-03-26	8121	mae	standard	3.8839007
2024-03-27	8874	rmse	standard	4.8120897
2024-03-27	8874	rsq	standard	0.2299060
2024-03-27	8874	mae	standard	3.8120170
2024-03-28	8895	rmse	standard	4.8617356
2024-03-28	8895	rsq	standard	0.1791429
2024-03-28	8895	mae	standard	3.8198272
2024-03-29	8904	rmse	standard	5.2659411
2024-03-29	8904	rsq	standard	0.0969103
2024-03-29	8904	mae	standard	4.0997156
2024-03-30	8904	rmse	standard	4.9077764
2024-03-30	8904	rsq	standard	0.1380367
2024-03-30	8904	mae	standard	3.8618747
2024-03-31	8904	rmse	standard	4.9578206
2024-03-31	8904	rsq	standard	0.1158464
2024-03-31	8904	mae	standard	3.8813110
2024-04-01	9646	rmse	standard	4.7965589
2024-04-01	9646	rsq	standard	0.1387998
2024-04-01	9646	mae	standard	3.7792201
2024-04-02	8902	rmse	standard	5.1429350
2024-04-02	8902	rsq	standard	0.0900361
2024-04-02	8902	mae	standard	4.0705385
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2025-10-25	815	rsq	standard	0.1985403
2025-10-25	815	mae	standard	4.0434024
2025-10-26	815	rmse	standard	5.2951159
2025-10-26	815	rsq	standard	0.1328335
2025-10-26	815	mae	standard	4.1634718
2025-10-27	815	rmse	standard	5.5052526
2025-10-27	815	rsq	standard	0.0914459
2025-10-27	815	mae	standard	4.4162043
2025-10-28	815	rmse	standard	5.7951129
2025-10-28	815	rsq	standard	0.0729780
2025-10-28	815	mae	standard	4.4736526
2025-10-29	815	rmse	standard	5.9097438
2025-10-29	815	rsq	standard	0.0673913
2025-10-29	815	mae	standard	4.6556181
2025-10-30	815	rmse	standard	6.2540912
2025-10-30	815	rsq	standard	0.0256106
2025-10-30	815	mae	standard	4.9186417
2025-10-31	815	rmse	standard	5.7505482
2025-10-31	815	rsq	standard	0.0958354
2025-10-31	815	mae	standard	4.5539906
2025-11-01	815	rmse	standard	5.2969789
2025-11-01	815	rsq	standard	0.1158027
2025-11-01	815	mae	standard	4.3353107
2025-11-03	815	rmse	standard	4.9213406
2025-11-03	815	rsq	standard	0.1376427
2025-11-03	815	mae	standard	3.9096579
2025-11-04	815	rmse	standard	5.0605604
2025-11-04	815	rsq	standard	0.1311273
2025-11-04	815	mae	standard	4.0518581
2025-11-05	815	rmse	standard	5.2405741
2025-11-05	815	rsq	standard	0.1161572
2025-11-05	815	mae	standard	4.2085259
2025-11-06	815	rmse	standard	5.0978492
2025-11-06	815	rsq	standard	0.1918473
2025-11-06	815	mae	standard	4.0306470
2025-11-07	816	rmse	standard	5.1390220
2025-11-07	816	rsq	standard	0.2187613
2025-11-07	816	mae	standard	4.1329384
2025-11-08	816	rmse	standard	5.0742633
2025-11-08	816	rsq	standard	0.2523572
2025-11-08	816	mae	standard	4.1003973
2025-11-09	816	rmse	standard	4.9184622
2025-11-09	816	rsq	standard	0.2768924
2025-11-09	816	mae	standard	3.9789293
2025-11-10	816	rmse	standard	5.0474301
2025-11-10	816	rsq	standard	0.1571044
2025-11-10	816	mae	standard	3.9935646
2025-11-11	816	rmse	standard	4.8691285
2025-11-11	816	rsq	standard	0.2108653
2025-11-11	816	mae	standard	3.9190212
2025-11-12	817	rmse	standard	4.8482684
2025-11-12	817	rsq	standard	0.2365423
2025-11-12	817	mae	standard	3.9373637
2025-11-13	818	rmse	standard	4.8263116
2025-11-13	818	rsq	standard	0.2472762
2025-11-13	818	mae	standard	3.8033350
2025-11-14	818	rmse	standard	5.1535921
2025-11-14	818	rsq	standard	0.1887680
2025-11-14	818	mae	standard	4.0039896
2025-11-15	818	rmse	standard	4.9485165
2025-11-15	818	rsq	standard	0.2263365
2025-11-15	818	mae	standard	3.9381824
2025-11-16	818	rmse	standard	4.9616711
2025-11-16	818	rsq	standard	0.2782823
2025-11-16	818	mae	standard	3.9734724
2025-11-17	818	rmse	standard	5.0837262
2025-11-17	818	rsq	standard	0.2804267
2025-11-17	818	mae	standard	4.0112097
2025-11-18	818	rmse	standard	5.0329608
2025-11-18	818	rsq	standard	0.2909161
2025-11-18	818	mae	standard	3.9954594
2025-11-19	818	rmse	standard	5.0146653
2025-11-19	818	rsq	standard	0.2978701
2025-11-19	818	mae	standard	3.9527781
2025-11-20	818	rmse	standard	5.1696656
2025-11-20	818	rsq	standard	0.2764966
2025-11-20	818	mae	standard	4.0610088
2025-11-21	818	rmse	standard	5.0426718
2025-11-21	818	rsq	standard	0.2895543
2025-11-21	818	mae	standard	4.0303910
2025-11-22	818	rmse	standard	4.9815981
2025-11-22	818	rsq	standard	0.3275906
2025-11-22	818	mae	standard	3.9677972
2025-11-23	818	rmse	standard	5.1254501
2025-11-23	818	rsq	standard	0.2786933
2025-11-23	818	mae	standard	4.1194559
2025-11-24	818	rmse	standard	4.9174662
2025-11-24	818	rsq	standard	0.2665670
2025-11-24	818	mae	standard	3.8983736
2025-11-25	818	rmse	standard	4.9412857
2025-11-25	818	rsq	standard	0.2487046
2025-11-25	818	mae	standard	3.9777215
2025-11-26	818	rmse	standard	5.1057500
2025-11-26	818	rsq	standard	0.2397888
2025-11-26	818	mae	standard	3.9780645
2025-11-27	818	rmse	standard	5.3011005
2025-11-27	818	rsq	standard	0.2351969
2025-11-27	818	mae	standard	4.1809891
2025-11-28	818	rmse	standard	5.5649855
2025-11-28	818	rsq	standard	0.2157111
2025-11-28	818	mae	standard	4.3930198
2025-11-29	818	rmse	standard	5.7373882
2025-11-29	818	rsq	standard	0.1889126
2025-11-29	818	mae	standard	4.5749563
2025-11-30	818	rmse	standard	5.6952967
2025-11-30	818	rsq	standard	0.1436577
2025-11-30	818	mae	standard	4.5672151
2025-12-01	818	rmse	standard	5.5760591
2025-12-01	818	rsq	standard	0.1238024
2025-12-01	818	mae	standard	4.4672909
2025-12-02	818	rmse	standard	5.5812514
2025-12-02	818	rsq	standard	0.1107725
2025-12-02	818	mae	standard	4.4995450
2025-12-03	818	rmse	standard	6.1830461
2025-12-03	818	rsq	standard	0.0537688
2025-12-03	818	mae	standard	5.0358984
2025-12-04	818	rmse	standard	5.8108495
2025-12-04	818	rsq	standard	0.0807842
2025-12-04	818	mae	standard	4.6741229
2025-12-05	818	rmse	standard	5.2909772
2025-12-05	818	rsq	standard	0.1540599
2025-12-05	818	mae	standard	4.2688048
2025-12-06	818	rmse	standard	5.3725041
2025-12-06	818	rsq	standard	0.1294264
2025-12-06	818	mae	standard	4.3429943
2025-12-07	818	rmse	standard	5.2636388
2025-12-07	818	rsq	standard	0.1916514
2025-12-07	818	mae	standard	4.2495990
2025-12-08	818	rmse	standard	5.2741344
2025-12-08	818	rsq	standard	0.1751587
2025-12-08	818	mae	standard	4.1554406
2025-12-09	818	rmse	standard	5.1404352
2025-12-09	818	rsq	standard	0.1778637
2025-12-09	818	mae	standard	4.0715431
2025-12-10	818	rmse	standard	5.1760909
2025-12-10	818	rsq	standard	0.2000338
2025-12-10	818	mae	standard	4.1726294
2025-12-11	818	rmse	standard	5.2282504
2025-12-11	818	rsq	standard	0.1751189
2025-12-11	818	mae	standard	4.2417836
2025-12-12	819	rmse	standard	5.3229556
2025-12-12	819	rsq	standard	0.1804043
2025-12-12	819	mae	standard	4.2571556
2025-12-13	819	rmse	standard	4.9910598
2025-12-13	819	rsq	standard	0.2330396
2025-12-13	819	mae	standard	4.0333150
2025-12-14	819	rmse	standard	5.2668424
2025-12-14	819	rsq	standard	0.2316953
2025-12-14	819	mae	standard	4.1570584
2025-12-15	819	rmse	standard	5.2373416
2025-12-15	819	rsq	standard	0.1855645
2025-12-15	819	mae	standard	4.1377347
2025-12-16	819	rmse	standard	5.1453753
2025-12-16	819	rsq	standard	0.1883511
2025-12-16	819	mae	standard	4.1494332
2025-12-17	819	rmse	standard	5.3575539
2025-12-17	819	rsq	standard	0.1568734
2025-12-17	819	mae	standard	4.2516253
2025-12-18	819	rmse	standard	5.2758079
2025-12-18	819	rsq	standard	0.1587877
2025-12-18	819	mae	standard	4.2530048
2025-12-19	819	rmse	standard	5.2134518
2025-12-19	819	rsq	standard	0.2097236
2025-12-19	819	mae	standard	4.1904375
2025-12-20	819	rmse	standard	5.2301014
2025-12-20	819	rsq	standard	0.1957955
2025-12-20	819	mae	standard	4.2715274
2025-12-21	819	rmse	standard	5.1103586
2025-12-21	819	rsq	standard	0.2209223
2025-12-21	819	mae	standard	4.1033671
2025-12-22	819	rmse	standard	5.0755723
2025-12-22	819	rsq	standard	0.2288255
2025-12-22	819	mae	standard	4.1296726
2025-12-23	819	rmse	standard	5.0591245
2025-12-23	819	rsq	standard	0.2161980
2025-12-23	819	mae	standard	4.0863431
2025-12-24	819	rmse	standard	5.5405259
2025-12-24	819	rsq	standard	0.1633672
2025-12-24	819	mae	standard	4.3909575
2025-12-25	819	rmse	standard	5.3309014
2025-12-25	819	rsq	standard	0.1538099
2025-12-25	819	mae	standard	4.3154450
2025-12-26	819	rmse	standard	5.4400990
2025-12-26	819	rsq	standard	0.1439058
2025-12-26	819	mae	standard	4.3407276
2025-12-27	819	rmse	standard	5.2390786
2025-12-27	819	rsq	standard	0.1508606
2025-12-27	819	mae	standard	4.2017350
2025-12-28	819	rmse	standard	5.4759222
2025-12-28	819	rsq	standard	0.1410513
2025-12-28	819	mae	standard	4.3118213
2025-12-29	819	rmse	standard	5.4453545
2025-12-29	819	rsq	standard	0.1445666
2025-12-29	819	mae	standard	4.2800667
2025-12-30	819	rmse	standard	5.5762208
2025-12-30	819	rsq	standard	0.1039863
2025-12-30	819	mae	standard	4.4302438
2025-12-31	819	rmse	standard	5.7526659
2025-12-31	819	rsq	standard	0.1033506
2025-12-31	819	mae	standard	4.5748322
2026-01-01	819	rmse	standard	5.3330787
2026-01-01	819	rsq	standard	0.1049419
2026-01-01	819	mae	standard	4.3057003
2026-01-02	819	rmse	standard	5.4509259
2026-01-02	819	rsq	standard	0.1109369
2026-01-02	819	mae	standard	4.3900365
2026-01-03	819	rmse	standard	5.3258166
2026-01-03	819	rsq	standard	0.1169384
2026-01-03	819	mae	standard	4.3320746
2026-01-04	819	rmse	standard	5.4108282
2026-01-04	819	rsq	standard	0.1424422
2026-01-04	819	mae	standard	4.3769971
2026-01-05	819	rmse	standard	5.3233790
2026-01-05	819	rsq	standard	0.1363532
2026-01-05	819	mae	standard	4.3059264
2026-01-06	819	rmse	standard	5.6173479
2026-01-06	819	rsq	standard	0.1372519
2026-01-06	819	mae	standard	4.4334715
2026-01-07	819	rmse	standard	5.3943059
2026-01-07	819	rsq	standard	0.1228747
2026-01-07	819	mae	standard	4.3200606
2026-01-08	819	rmse	standard	5.5301838
2026-01-08	819	rsq	standard	0.1240273
2026-01-08	819	mae	standard	4.4526415
2026-01-09	819	rmse	standard	5.5618823
2026-01-09	819	rsq	standard	0.1404849
2026-01-09	819	mae	standard	4.4547932
2026-01-10	819	rmse	standard	5.2448958
2026-01-10	819	rsq	standard	0.2091225
2026-01-10	819	mae	standard	4.2426095
2026-01-11	819	rmse	standard	5.4252635
2026-01-11	819	rsq	standard	0.1501274
2026-01-11	819	mae	standard	4.3114018
2026-01-12	819	rmse	standard	5.3583703
2026-01-12	819	rsq	standard	0.1502501
2026-01-12	819	mae	standard	4.2910974
2026-01-13	819	rmse	standard	5.1768072
2026-01-13	819	rsq	standard	0.1554356
2026-01-13	819	mae	standard	4.0987728
2026-01-14	819	rmse	standard	5.2891641
2026-01-14	819	rsq	standard	0.1517711
2026-01-14	819	mae	standard	4.2200177
2026-01-15	819	rmse	standard	5.3327047
2026-01-15	819	rsq	standard	0.1428584
2026-01-15	819	mae	standard	4.2704075
2026-01-16	819	rmse	standard	5.1271446
2026-01-16	819	rsq	standard	0.1996190
2026-01-16	819	mae	standard	4.0219458
2026-01-17	819	rmse	standard	5.2821595
2026-01-17	819	rsq	standard	0.2183201
2026-01-17	819	mae	standard	4.1925539
2026-01-18	819	rmse	standard	5.1615781
2026-01-18	819	rsq	standard	0.2732582
2026-01-18	819	mae	standard	4.1044991
2026-01-19	819	rmse	standard	5.2987872
2026-01-19	819	rsq	standard	0.2391353
2026-01-19	819	mae	standard	4.1872987
2026-01-20	819	rmse	standard	5.3764302
2026-01-20	819	rsq	standard	0.1749820
2026-01-20	819	mae	standard	4.2077461
2026-01-21	819	rmse	standard	5.2871434
2026-01-21	819	rsq	standard	0.1877452
2026-01-21	819	mae	standard	4.1691811
2026-01-22	819	rmse	standard	5.1584827
2026-01-22	819	rsq	standard	0.1947878
2026-01-22	819	mae	standard	4.0869223
2026-01-23	819	rmse	standard	5.3488202
2026-01-23	819	rsq	standard	0.1992808
2026-01-23	819	mae	standard	4.1405194
2026-01-24	819	rmse	standard	5.2588856
2026-01-24	819	rsq	standard	0.2135450
2026-01-24	819	mae	standard	4.0817367
2026-01-25	819	rmse	standard	5.1740666
2026-01-25	819	rsq	standard	0.2252698
2026-01-25	819	mae	standard	4.0459127
2026-01-26	819	rmse	standard	5.2189774
2026-01-26	819	rsq	standard	0.1897847
2026-01-26	819	mae	standard	4.1076916
2026-01-27	819	rmse	standard	5.0178955
2026-01-27	819	rsq	standard	0.2182896
2026-01-27	819	mae	standard	3.9806728
2026-01-28	819	rmse	standard	4.9303454
2026-01-28	819	rsq	standard	0.2297294
2026-01-28	819	mae	standard	3.9455853
2026-01-29	819	rmse	standard	4.8163869
2026-01-29	819	rsq	standard	0.2228566
2026-01-29	819	mae	standard	3.8571690
2026-01-30	819	rmse	standard	4.7868683
2026-01-30	819	rsq	standard	0.2521654
2026-01-30	819	mae	standard	3.7989585

Visualize model performance

A comparison of the model prediction vs. the ground truth for the model evaluation data.

preds %>%
  ggplot(aes(n_bikes, .pred)) +
  geom_abline(slope = 1, lty = 2, color = "gray60", size = 1.2) +
  geom_jitter(alpha = 0.5, width = 0.4) +
  labs(
    title = "Model Performance by Prediction",
    subtitle = glue("Using the evaluation data from {test_start_date} to {test_end_date}"),
    x = "Acutal Number of Bikes",
    y = "Predicted Number of Bikes"
  )

Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.

Performance by location

A visual assessment of model performance by location.

preds %>%
  mutate(.resid = n_bikes - .pred) %>%
  ggplot(aes(lon, lat, color = .resid)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
  scale_color_gradient2() +
  coord_fixed() + 
  labs(
    title = "Model Performance by Location",
    subtitle = glue("Using the evaluation data from {test_start_date} to {test_end_date}"),
    x = "Longitude",
    y = "Latitude",
    color = "Residual"
  )

Ethical considerations

• We considered the ethical impact the use of the model may have. We assessed that the overall risk due to an incorrect model prediction is relatively low.

Caveats & recommendations

• This model does not guarantee that a bike will be available at a station.
• We recommend using this model for demonstration purposes only.
• To see the raw source code that produced this document visit https://github.com/sol-eng/bike_predict/blob/main/content/02-model/02-model-metrics/document.qmd.